Uh oh! On January 29th 2012 the Marin Independent Journal reported that, “The sharp price declines that followed the financial crisis appears to be over (?), but in 2011 the median price here for single family home price in Marin dipped to $742,500 (down 4.2 percent from $775,000 in 2010), and the lowest median price since 2003. Some Realtors here in Marin think prices will continue to drop, and have suggested that if you’re considering putting your home on the market in 2012, now would be the time to begin. Obviously, no one has a crystal ball here, and any opinions are pure speculation. Time will tell…
2005 Some economist began predicting that the economy was in trouble due to Wall Street and the Big Banks Derivitive trades that collateralized liar loans (unstated or fabricated incomes) with other securities. And, as these liar loans/adjustable mortgages started to re-set at higher interest rates many economist began predicting the burst of the real estate bubble. (see Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short.”) 2006 In July and August of 2006 the Marin Real Estate market peaked. July and August reflected the highest median price sales to date. 2007 As the bubble builds, real estate sales in Marin begin to slow, and the median price begins dropping. 2008 In the fall of 2008 the predictions of 2005 are realized, and for the remainder of 2008 the Marin Real Estate market slips into a lull. Northern Marin is hit hard! Clearly it’s a buyer’s market. 2009 The lull continues. Prices drop. Foreclosure, short sales, and REO properties dominate the Marin Real Estate market. Investor begin buying troubled properties. The low end of the Marin Real Estate market keeps the rest of the Marin market propped up. 2010 The local real estate market here starts to pick up, and Marin Realtors wonder if we’ve stopped bouncing off the bottom? Mid range and upper end properties sales pick up but buyers are extremenly picky, and demanding. 2011 It appears the market is showing signs of life and then the Deficit Ceiling Debate begins, and the Marin Real Estate market begins to slip into another lull in response along with fears with what’s happening with Europe’s economy. Buyers have become more cautious then ever. Some buyers are so frustrated trying to get a mortgage when they have a strong down payment, good credit, and additional resources and still can’t get a loan. A significant number of qualified buyers decide to rent. Rents go up, and the real estate market here in the Bay Area continues to slow. 2012 A lot of good signs out there! The Stock Market is up. Interest rates are down. Early reports of traffic through Sunday Open Houses appears to be picking up. More new buyers coming into the market? And yet, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is Europe’s economy. In particular, Europe’s Derivitive market. This is the big unknown, and this could change everything.
Ann Rodgers, executive director of the Marin Community Food Bank sits among bags ready to be distributed at the Food Banks warehouse. The Marin Community Food Bank agency gives out 2 million pounds of goods each year and will provide meals to more than 3,500 families during Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanukkah.
75 Digital Drive, Novato, California 94949
415-883-1302 / fax: 415-883-5178
You can always deliver donations to the food bank at the above address. You can also write a check and send it to that address. The Food Bank spends $150,000 a year buying traditional food to fill out the Holiday boxes. You can also leave food donations under the 20 foot tall turkey at the Town Center in Corte Madera. The turkey was created by employees of Lucasfilm’s Industrial Light and Magic, and has been a fixture at the mall for the last 13 years.
For the 18th consecutive years, the Town Center Shoppers will be treated to the sight of The World’s Largest Turkey! For more information, call 415-924-2961
Come see John “Lucky” Lister’s massive mechanical Turkey to collect canned food for the needy (bring canned foods!) at the Corte Madera Town Center!
On October 20, 2011 the Marin Independent Journal reported that the number of houses sold in Marin edged up in September compared with the same month in 2010.
The proposed course for the 34th America Cup in San Francisco Bay.
The 2013 America’s Cup in San Francisco is touted to be the largest sporting event to hit American shores in the next 10 years! It’s already considered the third largest sporting event after the Olympics and World Cup soccer, and there’s been much chat about how big it’ll be when the Cup hits town starting with events on the bay next summer.
As actress Rose McGowan of Grindhouse, Scream and Jawbreakers fame prepared her Hollywood home for sale, a mixup between McGowan and her assistant as to which brownies to put out for the eight Realtors and various inspectors coming to the home, according to ContactMusic.com.
The agents apparently ate marijuana-laced brownies (“pot brownies”) after McGowan’s assistant put out the wrong batch of snacks. ContactMusic.com reports the assistant made the brownies for McGowan to try but mixed them up with the legitimate brownies.
“Enjoy!”
McGowan said, “There were eight Realtors and inspectors coming to the house… and you have to get out of your house… and I notice there’s a big, huge plate of brownies that said ‘Enjoy!’ on the saran-wrap… and I just left, I didn’t think about it.”
She also noted that “At 4:30, I get a call from my realtor saying, ‘Erm, I’m at my parent teacher conference; was there anything in those brownies?’ I’m imagining all these poor people… high as a kite, like, ‘What the hell happened in Hollywood?’”
Founder and former CEO of ForSalebyOwner.com, Colby Sambrotto listed his 2,000 square foot New York condominium on his own through online classified ads and FSBO sites, but after six months, he opted to hire New York broker Jesse Buckler who immediately advised a price change as the listing was not attracting the right buyer.
After giving up on the DIY route, Sambrotto’s decision to hire a broker led to attracting multiple offers, closing for $150,000 over the original asking price. The Wall Street Journal reports the listing sold for $2.15 million including a 6% commission.
Many FSBOs turn to Realtors
The news stands as an enormous validation of the real estate profession and while some may tease, it is no laughing matter and the former FSBO CEO made a good financial decision.
AGBeat columnist Herman Chan said, “If people want to take a stab at For Sale By Owner (ie FSBO), go for it. But well over 80% of FSBO’s eventually have to list with an real estate agent to get their house sold. It’s harder than it looks!”
Not a new dilemma
Marlow Harris, Seattle Residential and Investment Consultant at Coldwell Banker Bain Associates told AGBeat, “The ForSaleByOwner.com founder’s dilemma is one we see quite often and is not unusual. Trying to sell your own property yourself or using a discount brokerage, is not the solution for everyone. Unusual properties, properties in the higher price range, these are more difficult to sell and often require specialization.”
Harris continues, “We see these choices across the board, from single family homes to huge housing developments. For instance, Vulcan, one of Paul Allen’s companies which has invested heavily in Redfin, does not use Redfin to market their many condominium projects. They use traditional real estate firms such as John L. Scott, Williams Marketing and Matrix Real Estate, finding that the do-it-yourself approach to real estate just doesn’t work for these types of sales.”
With just hours to spare before the deadline, Congress passed and the President signed the debt ceiling/deficit reduction bill on August 2, which among other things called for a deficit reduction of $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years. While this was a good step towards lowering the budget deficit, the uncertainty surrounding the deal, combined with continued weak economic reports (including personal incomes for June, which grew by the lowest measure since November, and personal spending, which was at the lowest levels in two years) and the credit crisis in Europe caused stocks to drop late last week.
And while it is important for our economy to improve, one result we often see during weak economic times is an improvement in bonds, including mortgage bonds, and therefore home loan rates, to which mortgage bonds are tied. Think of it this way: Investors move their money back and forth between stocks and bonds, moving money into the safe haven of bonds when there is uncertainty or weakness in the economy. That action last week helped bonds and home loan rates approach historic best levels once again.
But not all of the news last week was bad for the economy. Friday’s jobs report from the Labor Department was better than expected, with 117,000 new jobs created during July, above the 84,000 that was expected…and better yet, May and June’s numbers were revised higher to add 56,000 more jobs to the former tally. In addition, hourly earnings rose 0.4% from 0.2% in June, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 9.1% from 9.2%. If future reports continue to improve, bonds and home loan rates could worsen, as investors would move their money back into stocks, a little of which we saw late last week. Bonds and home loan rates improved for most of last week, though the better than expected jobs report caused them to give back some of these improvements.
